In a detailed interview, Frans Cronje of the Social Research Foundation discussed South Africa’s shifting geopolitical alignment. With global powers vying for influence, public opinion leans towards Russia and China, though the West still dominates economic impact. Cronje warned of the dangers of misjudging the nation’s strategic importance. Cronje spoke to BizNews editor Alec Hogg.
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Extended transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Alec Hogg (00:12.206)
So, the data we get from YouTube suggests not to put too much into one single discussion. As a result, we stopped our first interview with Dr. Frans Cronje at around 25 minutes, but there’s a lot more to discuss regarding the research that the Social Research Foundation has been conducting. So, here’s part two.
Alec Hogg (00:39.534)
Frans, you made some extraordinarily strong points about the Government of National Unity (GNU). Just to summarize, and this was in part one of our discussion, the parties in the GNU are doing well. It’s 100 days in, and all is good, but there are real dangers for those supporting it—dangers that are very real unless there is delivery in the next year, or perhaps 18 months. That delivery would primarily come through job creation. Otherwise, the future could be very different from what everyone is currently excited about. But let’s dig a little deeper into your research, perhaps starting with the international front. How are foreigners seeing South Africa?
Frans Cronje (01:30.063)
Yes, and how South Africans are seeing foreigners. I think the strategic importance of South Africa is already significant, and it will become much greater than many South Africans realize. This year, as you know, has been full of elections around the world. One of the most important was in the Solomon Islands, located to the east of Australia. The result of that election might be part of a process toward those islands one day enabling a Chinese naval facility. If that happens, Australia would be cut off from the protection of the American Navy at Pearl Harbor in the Pacific.
Frans Cronje (02:33.277)
A few days ago, Keir Starmer allowed the Chagos Islands to be ceded to Mauritius. On Chagos, there’s an island called Diego Garcia, which houses a very important Western military facility that allows the Americans to project power across almost half of the world. You could fly a nuclear bomber from Diego Garcia. The inevitable consequence of this decision is that, over the next 10 or 15 years, the presence of that Western facility will come under pressure and might be removed. So, the strategic balance of power, both in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, is shifting very rapidly. South Africa is very important here—whether it remains a Western ally (if it ever truly was) or whether it increasingly aligns with China and Russia. South Africa guards the entrance to the South Atlantic. The Chinese have expanded effectively into the Solomon Islands and onto Africa’s East Coast, with a naval facility in Djibouti. They’ve attempted to advance into the Mediterranean, through places like Haifa, Italy, and Greece—what one American analyst called stepping stones to one day rule the Atlantic. They’ve been blocked to some extent, so they now have a strategic interest in coming down the East Coast and turning onto the West Coast, which includes the South Atlantic.
Frans Cronje (04:58.553)
The South Atlantic was critical in the opening exchanges of both the First and Second World Wars. The sinking of the German Pacific cruiser squadron in World War I and the scuttling of their flagship in World War II allowed the Allies to command the South Atlantic, which in turn enabled control of the North Atlantic and ultimately determined the outcome of the wars. Mrs. Thatcher sent her battle group to the Falklands not just out of national pride, but because of its immense strategic importance. If, for instance, a submarine sailed from Bata in Equatorial Guinea, it would be closer to New York than Hawaii, and the next stop would be the American West Coast. Down Africa’s West Coast, there’s Bata, followed by Luanda and Lobito in Angola, where President Biden was due to visit. There’s also the American project at Lobito, then Namibia’s Walvis Bay—once feared by Castro and the Soviets during the Bush War because South African submarines could sink supply ships. Then, of course, there’s the jewel in the crown, Simon’s Town. If something goes wrong at Suez, a vast share of global bulk shipping must move between the 50th and 60th parallels off South Africa’s coast. So, you’d want to control this region.
Over time, we’ve noticed a drift in South African public opinion away from Western allegiances toward growing sympathy for Russia and China. For example, we asked whether South Africa’s foreign policy should align with countries like Russia, China, and Iran, and against the West. Just under 40% of South Africans now agree that this should be the approach, while just over 50% disagree. So, it’s almost evenly split.
Frans Cronje (07:19.911)
We also asked another question, making a statement (which was false): “Russia and China provide more investment and create more jobs in South Africa than the US and European Union.” And, significantly, nearly 60% of voters agreed with this false statement.
Alec Hogg (07:48.076)
Wow.
Frans Cronje (07:49.929)
This reveals that a majority of South Africans believe Russia and China are more important to our economy than the West, which is a failure of Western diplomacy. Given the strategic importance of the region, I find it staggering that this isn’t being discussed more widely.
Alec Hogg (10:17.208)
If we consider the actual facts, what is the real difference in terms of job creation and economic importance between the West and Russia/China?
Frans Cronje (10:35.973)
If you measure job creation or fixed investment—perhaps the best metric to use because it reflects real commitment—the West’s contribution to South Africa’s economy dwarfs that of Russia and China at this time. This may change over time, but the statement we presented to voters was deliberately false, and we wanted to see their response. Over time, we’ve seen public opinion shifting in favor of Russia and China.
Alec Hogg (11:20.344)
Hmm.
Frans Cronje (11:31.545)
If I could add one more thing: in the unipolar world, it made sense for South Africa to align with Western democracies without much thought. For many liberal thinkers invested in the idea of Western liberal democracy, the assumption was that Western ideas would automatically make South Africa more successful. But that’s no longer true. For example, on energy policy, South Africa would be better off listening to Moscow and Beijing than to Washington and Brussels. Similarly, on issues like merit-based competitiveness, South Africa might do well to take advice from Beijing rather than from Western capitals.
Frans Cronje (12:06.365)
There’s huge strategic importance around South Africa now. The balance of power has shifted with the Solomon Islands and Diego Garcia. The South Atlantic is becoming the next major terrain of contestation. Domestically, public opinion in South Africa is slipping away from the West and toward Russia and China, as the multipolar world replaces the unipolar one. For Western liberals, the default assumption that South Africa should always align with Western democracies is no longer automatically valid. Fascinating times indeed.
Alec Hogg (13:59.416)
That’s certainly thought-provoking. What’s your view on what might happen post-American presidential election, particularly if Donald Trump wins? Wall Street and betting markets seem to be leaning toward a Trump victory. If Trump wins, and given his relationship with Elon Musk (who is friendly with Ramaphosa), and Trump’s different stance on Russia and China compared to his opponents, could the trends you’re discussing accelerate?
Frans Cronje (15:12.721)
I don’t know for certain, but I think a Trump presidency would make for a safer world due to the deterrence factor. As Trump likes to say, when he was in charge, Russia invaded no one. I think Western influence would increase under Trump, while under a Harris presidency, we’d see further retreat. Many Westerners grew up in an era of the “end of history” when it seemed like the West had triumphed and liberal democracy would spread inevitably. That’s no longer the case.
Frans Cronje (17:19.517)
In the event of a Trump administration, I believe Africa, including Southern Africa, would be seen as a strategic issue. A Harris administration might view Africa more as a moral issue, a place to provide help rather than as a region of strategic importance. In my view, South Africa’s interests are best served by being treated as a strategic player and adopting a non-aligned approach, trading off great powers for concessions that benefit our nation.
Alec Hogg (18:55.682)
It seems that Ramaphosa is, at least publicly, aligned with that non-aligned approach. Frans Cronje, chairman of the Social Research Foundation, thank you for your time and insight. These discussions—one on local politics and the other on geopolitics—are incredibly important for all of us who live in South Africa and hope for the best for our country. I’m Alec Hogg from BizNews.com.
Frans Cronje (19:33.031)
Thanks, Alec.
Alec Hogg (19:35.468)
Brilliant. Fantastic. Thank you, Frans. Thanks for your time.
Frans Cronje (19:45.533)
There’s so much more to discuss. We’ll definitely have to do this again sometime.
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